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	<title>Strategic Framing &#187; weak signals</title>
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	<description>Thriving in an Uncertain World</description>
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		<title>Damned if you do, Damned if you&#8230;</title>
		<link>http://strategicframing.com/2008/12/15/damned-if-you-do-damned-if-you/</link>
		<comments>http://strategicframing.com/2008/12/15/damned-if-you-do-damned-if-you/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 15 Dec 2008 14:08:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[weak signals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[consumer spending]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economic downturn]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[For years, economists have been wringing their hands about the US consumer&#8217;s low savings rate and dependence on credit to support their lifestyle.  I recall numerous articles during the late 80&#8217;s imploring us all to be more like the Japanese consumer and save more.  Then Japanese savings rates plunged and we were urged to be [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For years, economists have been wringing their hands about the US consumer&#8217;s low savings rate and dependence on credit to support their lifestyle.  I recall numerous articles during the late 80&#8217;s imploring us all to be more like the Japanese consumer and save more.  Then Japanese savings rates plunged and we were urged to be more like the Germans and French.</p>
<p>On Thursday, The Federal Reserve reported that <a href="http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-debt12-2008dec12,1,1178320.story" target="_blank">consumer household debt declined for the first time in 50 years</a> of record keeping during the 3rd Quarter.</p>
<p>This news was met with&#8230;intense hand wringing.</p>
<p>Once again we can see the wonderful <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoner%27s_dilemma" target="_blank">prisoners dillemma</a> structure of our national economy.  What is best and rational for the individual consumer is not what is best for the economy as a whole.  For years, we&#8217;ve been told to save for our future.  Yet our economy was built to support the lifestyle of a nation of debtors.  Production capacity in the world economy is scaled to support an economy based on massive household leverage.</p>
<p>Now, with household investments and job prospects uncertain, the logical action for the individual is to pull back consumption and build a savings nest egg.  Of course, less credit card spending means less buying..means less sales&#8230;means less productions&#8230;means fewer jobs&#8230;means cats and dogs sleeping together.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s kind of disheartening to know that the health of our economic system is dependent upon the willingness of the individual household toact against their best economic interests.</p>

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		<title>Weak Signals: Declining household energy consumption</title>
		<link>http://strategicframing.com/2008/11/21/weak-signals-declining-household-energy-consumption/</link>
		<comments>http://strategicframing.com/2008/11/21/weak-signals-declining-household-energy-consumption/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 21 Nov 2008 18:49:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[strategic planning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[weak signals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[energy]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Weak signals is a collection of news stories highlighting &#8220;surprise&#8221; data or activities that could indicate qualitative changes in the business environment.  Weak signals are the early warning signs that a company&#8217;s environment may be changing in unanticipated ways.  Weak signals need to be monitored for further development and strategies need to be adjusted accordingly.
In [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em><strong>Weak signals</strong> is a collection of news stories highlighting &#8220;surprise&#8221; data or activities that could indicate qualitative changes in the business environment.  Weak signals are the early warning signs that a company&#8217;s environment may be changing in unanticipated ways.  Weak signals need to be monitored for further development and strategies need to be adjusted accordingly.</em></p>
<p>In today&#8217;s Wall Street Journal comes a report that household energy usage has dropped at a greater rate than would be expected based on weather and economic reasons.   This weak signal may suggest a qualitative shift in consumer energy use.  Perhaps energy saving device adoption has reached a tipping point.  Household energy usage has been fairly stable and predictable.  A shift in household energy patterns will impact numerous energy industry model assumptions.</p>
<p><a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122722654497346099.html" target="_blank">Surprise Drop in Power Use Delivers Jolt to Utilities </a></p>

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