Overconfidence can derail a strategic planning process. It can cause smart people to assume they know more than they do. It can lead groups of people to confidently predict a future when the future is uncertain. It can make a strategy a narrowly focused agenda instead of a map of strategic options for thriving in an uncertain environment.
Roch Parayre, Ph.D. gives some famous examples of overconfidence.
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July 14th, 2008 at 7:02 pm
What is the fine line between confidence and OVER confidence? Young entrepreneurs must have the strength of belief and the incredible confidence to follow their dreams. By others this may be viewed as OVER confidence, but, by the fellow creative entrepreneur it is viewed as PASSION for you idea or product. When we developed QuickPlanner Plus, it was designed to help the creative entrepreneur harness that passion and focus it towards a workable plan for success. Our goal is not to bring the entrepreneur down to reality, but to help the entrepreneur to create a plan to reach the stars.
July 16th, 2008 at 6:18 am
Matsonian,
Overconfidence plays a significant role in entrepreneurial failure. Confidence in a vision needs to be grounded in good research and realistic apprasial of the market. The overconfidence cognitive bias is what causes entrepreneurs to ignore signs that they are not as prepared as they think they are. Overconfidence is what causes entrepreneurs to ignore making contingency plans in case their business launch does not go as planned. Overconfidence is what causes entrepreneurs to discount negative feedback as “uninformed” or write it off as not important.
The business planning software you are offering is actually a great way to keep entrepreneurs honest about these things and keep their confidence from turning into overconfidence.
Good Luck with your business.
John